Future of probability: guesses about the present

What it is

The simple future (futuro simple) has two jobs in Spanish. The first is the future: Mañana estará en Lima (Tomorrow she’ll be in Lima). The second, just as frequent in conversation, is a guess about the present: the futuro de probabilidad, or future of probability.

—¿Dónde está Ana? —No sé, estará en el trabajo. (—Where’s Ana? —I don’t know, she must be at work.)

The speaker doesn’t know for sure but makes a reasonable guess. English uses must be, probably or I wonder; Spanish simply puts the verb in the future. In Latin America, where plans usually take ir a + infinitive, the simple future is very often a guess.

You will hear it all the time: when someone is late, when the phone rings, when you see a price or a crowd and want to put a number on it.

How to form it

The forms are exactly those of the future: infinitive + -é, -ás, -á, -emos, -án. Most guesses are about someone else, so the third person does most of the work:

The verbs you will guess with most often have irregular stems:

Negatives and questions work as usual, and object pronouns go before the verb: No estará en casa. ¿Lo sabrá ya? Ya lo sabrá.

When to use it

Guessing about now. Someone isn’t answering, the traffic has stopped, a friend looks tired: the future offers a likely explanation.

• Ana no contesta: estará en una reunión.Ana isn’t answering: she must be in a meeting.a likely explanation
• Hay mucho tráfico; habrá un accidente más adelante.There’s a lot of traffic; there must be an accident further on.haber → habrá
• Matías no vino a clase; estará enfermo.Matías didn’t come to class; he must be ill.past fact, guess about now

Approximate figures. With unos, unas or más o menos, the future gives a rough number: age, time, price, distance.

• —¿Qué hora es? —Serán las once.—What time is it? —It must be about eleven.plural, like son las once
• El profesor nuevo tendrá unos cuarenta años.The new teacher must be about forty.age with tener
• Un departamento así en Quito costará unos quinientos dólares al mes.A flat like that in Quito must cost about five hundred dollars a month.a price

It works for crowds and distances too: Habrá unas doscientas personas en la plaza. El hotel estará a unos diez minutos de aquí.

Wondering out loud. A question in the future is often addressed to yourself, like English I wonder…: ¿Quién será a esta hora? ¿Dónde estarán mis llaves? ¿Qué querrá decir este mensaje? Nobody is expected to answer, but if someone does, it is usually with another guess: —¿Quién será? —Será el vecino.

Granting a point. Será + adjective + pero admits something before you object: Será caro, pero vale la pena (It may be expensive, but it’s worth it).

Other ways to make the same guess: debe (de) estar en el trabajo, seguramente está en el trabajo, supongo que está en el trabajo. In Mexico you will also hear ha de estar en el trabajo.

How sure are you? Está en casa (I know it) → estará en casa or debe de estar en casa (my best guess) → a lo mejor está en casa (maybe; more on this in the next topic).

Contrasts and traps

• Present = you know; future = you guess. Está en casa (I can see her car) vs Estará en casa (I suppose so). If you saw it, use the present.
• Future or guess? Context decides: Mañana estará en Lima is a future fact; Ahora estará en Lima is a guess.
• Not ir a: Va a estar en el trabajo points to later. For a guess about now, use estará.
• Not for past guesses: Ayer estará cansado is wrong. At B1, say Ayer seguramente estaba cansado; at B2 you will learn estaría and habrá salido for guesses about the past.
• Hours agree: serán las diez, but será la una.
• Asking or wondering? ¿Qué hora es? asks someone who can tell you; ¿Qué hora será? thinks aloud.
• Stems: tendrá, habrá, querrá, sabrá, never tenerá, haberá, quererá.

If you also speak Portuguese

Brazilians usually make these guesses with dever (deve estar no trabalho) or será que (será que ela está doente?). Spanish has debe de estar too, but in conversation the future on the verb itself is the most natural choice: estará en el trabajo, ¿estará enferma? Quem será? transfers directly: ¿Quién será?